Zelensky Warns Russia Expanding Ballistic Missile Production to Sustain War

Warning from Kyiv President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that Russia intends to expand production of ballistic missiles, a move that threatens to intensify the war in Ukraine and place new strain on Western air defenses. In his latest public address, Zelensky said Russian industry was pushing to build more of these weapons, according to a statement released by his office. The warning comes as Ukrainian cities prepare for another winter of possible long-range attacks, following two seasons in which Russian missiles and drones caused severe damage to the country's energy grid and residential areas. It also reinforces Kyiv's longstanding argument that Russia is committed to a sustained military campaign rather than genuine negotiations.

Ballistic missiles are among the most dangerous weapons in Russia's arsenal. Unlike cruise missiles, which fly at lower altitudes and can be easier to track, ballistic missiles are launched on a high trajectory and descend at extreme speed. That gives air-defense systems only a short period in which to shoot them down, and intercepting them successfully requires sophisticated radar and interceptor missiles such as those carried by Patriot systems. Zelensky has repeatedly told allies that Ukraine lacks enough of those systems and that every gap in coverage translates directly into civilian casualties and destroyed infrastructure. By highlighting Russia's plan to expand missile production, he is urging Western governments to move faster with deliveries of air-defense equipment and missiles before the threat grows even larger.

Zelensky's appeal In his comments, Zelensky did not provide precise figures for current or planned Russian production. Instead, he pointed to the intent behind it, saying Russia wanted to increase the number of ballistic missiles it could build and fire at Ukraine. The Ukrainian president has made similar statements in the past, but the latest warning carries particular weight because it comes amid signs that Moscow is reorganizing its defense industry to support a longer war. Western intelligence officials have previously assessed that Russia has suffered significant losses of missile stockpiles, but has also adapted by refurbishing older weapons, increasing domestic production, and turning to foreign suppliers for components and complete systems.

The mention of ballistic missiles is especially notable because Russia has used some of its most advanced short-range ballistic systems in the war. The Iskander-M missile has been used in multiple strikes, and Ukrainian and Western officials say Russia has also fired North Korean-made ballistic missiles into Ukraine. These weapons are difficult to intercept, and their use has forced Ukraine to expend scarce Patriot interceptors. If Moscow is now expanding production capacity, Ukrainian officials fear that future attacks could be more frequent, more concentrated, and more difficult to stop.

Zelensky's remarks also appeared aimed at audiences beyond Ukraine. The Ukrainian leader has spent months asking Washington and European capitals for more air-defense batteries, longer-range missiles, and permission to use Western-built weapons to hit targets on Russian territory. Some allies have been reluctant to allow attacks on Russian soil, fearing that Moscow could escalate. Zelensky's warning about missile production is part of his broader argument that Russia has no interest in de-escalation and that the only way to protect Ukraine is to provide it with the means to defend itself.

Russia's missile industry Russia entered the full-scale invasion with a large stockpile of precision-guided munitions, but years of high-intensity use gradually drained those reserves. In the early months of the war, Russia launched waves of cruise missiles from land, sea, and air. Analysts later noted a slowing pace of strikes as Russia attempted to replenish supplies. Over time, Moscow shifted some of its defense spending toward replenishing missile inventories, and Western assessments have suggested that Russia can now produce or refurbish more missiles than it could in the early stages of the war.

The expansion of ballistic missile production is harder to measure than other parts of the Russian defense industry. The systems are complex, and sanctions on electronic components have made manufacturing more difficult. However, Russian defense plants have adapted by finding alternative suppliers, often through third countries, and by prioritizing domestic components even when they are less reliable. Reports from Ukrainian officials and independent researchers have pointed to expanded activity at plants associated with missile production. There have also been signs of cooperation with North Korea, which has supplied ballistic missiles and may be helping Russia increase its capacity.

Russia's willingness to invest in missile manufacturing is a sign that it expects a long conflict. The production of a modern ballistic missile is expensive and demanding, yet the Kremlin has shown that it is prepared to accept those costs rather than reduce pressure on Ukraine. The warning issued by Zelensky therefore fits into a broader picture of a Russian state that has put its economy on a wartime footing. Defense spending has risen sharply, factories are operating in longer shifts, and Moscow is using every available channel to obtain the technology and materials it needs.

What it means for Ukraine and the West If Russia is able to expand its ballistic missile production, the implications extend well beyond Ukraine's front lines. For Ukraine, it means a higher risk of attacks on cities, power stations, and heating infrastructure. Ukrainian air-defense commanders have already described difficult choices between protecting different regions. Modern Western systems like Patriot have proven effective, but they are limited in number, and the missiles used to intercept ballistic targets are expensive and in short supply. A higher rate of Russian launches would put more pressure on Ukraine's defenders and could force partners to send additional batteries and interceptors at a time when their own stocks are constrained.

For NATO countries, Russia's expanded missile capacity is a strategic issue. Russia has the ability to station ballistic missiles within range of much of Europe, and a large production base would give it the option to sustain not only the war in Ukraine but also a broader confrontation with NATO in the future. Western defense planners have responded by increasing investment in air and missile defense, but budgets and industrial capacity remain limited. The war in Ukraine has exposed the difficulty of maintaining high-end missile production over several years, and the same problem now applies to Western manufacturers that must supply Ukraine while rebuilding their own reserves.

The warning from Kyiv is therefore likely to influence both military aid decisions and NATO defense planning. In the coming weeks, Ukrainian officials are expected to make further appeals for Patriot batteries and for the interceptor missiles they need. The United States has announced additional packages, but deliveries have sometimes taken months, and Ukraine has repeatedly said that the pace is too slow. European nations have also pledged support, but the scale of production of modern air-defense systems is not enough to meet demand. If Russian ballistic missile production is indeed expanding, the gap between threat and defensive capacity could grow.

What happens next The next phase of the war may be shaped by industrial endurance as much as by battlefield tactics. Russia appears determined to increase the number of weapons it can throw at Ukraine, while Ukraine and its allies are working to improve interception rates and to give Kyiv the ability to strike deeper behind Russian lines. Zelensky's warning about ballistic missiles is likely to be followed by more specific intelligence-sharing with partners and by new requests for aid.

For civilians in Ukraine, the immediate result may be more air-raid warnings and more winter months spent with uncertainty about electricity, heating, and water. Ukrainian authorities have been building shelters and improving resilience, but no amount of preparation can fully offset a sustained ballistic missile campaign. The coming months will show whether Western countries are able to turn their political support into practical protection at the speed the situation demands. In the meantime, the Kremlin shows no sign of slowing its defense industry, and Kyiv is bracing for a new and more dangerous phase of the war.