Pew Poll: Canadians, Mexicans View China More Favorably Than U.S.

A Regional Realignment

Public opinion in North America is undergoing a seismic shift. A new Pew Research Center survey finds that Canadians and Mexicans now hold more favorable views of China than of the United States, a historic reversal that reflects changing economic ties, diplomatic friction, and the aftereffects of a turbulent U.S. presidency. The report, based on surveys conducted earlier this year, reveals that America's two closest neighbors have grown increasingly skeptical of U.S. leadership while warming up to Beijing's global posture.

The Findings

According to Pew, favorable ratings for China now exceed those for the United States in both Canada and Mexico. In Canada, the shift is modest but symbolic; in Mexico, the gap is more pronounced, with a solid majority expressing warmth toward China. Conversely, U.S. favorability has slipped to near-historic lows in both countries, reversing a decades-long pattern of overwhelming approval. Public assessments of U.S. President Joe Biden were also lukewarm, though the survey notes that negative perceptions of the U.S. predate his administration.

The researchers attribute the decline to several factors, including former President Donald Trump's antagonistic trade policies, disputes over the North American free trade agreement renegotiation, and a general perception that Washington treats its allies as subordinates rather than partners. China, in contrast, has aggressively expanded its economic footprint in the region through infrastructure investment, trade deals, and vaccine diplomacy during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Why the Shift?

Analysts argue that China's patient, low-conditionality engagement with Canada and Mexico has quietly eroded America's traditional advantage in cultural and political influence. 'China does not lecture,' said one trade policy analyst based in Toronto. 'It offers loans, builds roads, and refrains from criticizing domestic politics. For many Canadians and Mexicans, that approach is more appealing than Washington's moralistic demands.'

Economic dependence plays a critical role as well. Mexico is China's second-largest trading partner in Latin America, and bilateral trade between the two countries reached record levels in recent years. Chinese investment in Mexican manufacturing, infrastructure, and renewable energy has deepened ties, even as the United States sought to 'near-shore' supply chains away from Asia. In Canada, China remains a major market for oil, lumber, and agriculture, and Chinese investors have acquired significant stakes in Canadian resources and technology firms.

The U.S.'s own policies have contributed to the perception problem. The Trump-era tariffs, border wall rhetoric, and hostile treatment of Canadian and Mexican officials damaged trust. Biden continued some of those measures and has been slow to quell concerns about electric vehicle subsidies that discriminate against Mexican-assembled cars. Meanwhile, China has positioned itself as a champion of global trade and multilateralism, echoing language that once defined American foreign policy.

Implications for U.S. Diplomacy

The Pew findings represent more than a statistical curiosity; they signal a tangible erosion of U.S. soft power in its own neighborhood. For decades, the United States could rely on a reservoir of goodwill among its neighbors, easing negotiations on security, immigration, and trade. That cushion is now thinner. 'You cannot persuade people who no longer respect you,' said a former U.S. diplomat who served in the region. 'Every request for cooperation now carries the burden of past grievances.'

The shift also creates strategic openings for China. As Chinese President Xi Jinping pushes for global leadership, the Americas are a key frontier. Beijing has courted Latin American governments with 'Belt and Road' projects and technical assistance, and has signed a free-trade agreement with Nicaragua, while deepening ties with Cuba and Venezuela. Canada and Mexico, while not likely to embrace China as a formal ally, may become less willing to align with U.S. positions on issues such as technology security, human rights, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Canada: Balancing Ties

In Canada, the relationship with China is complicated by the 2018 detention of two Canadian citizens in a diplomatic spat, which was resolved in 2021, and by allegations of Chinese interference in domestic affairs. Still, the public's more favorable view of China suggests that economic pragmatism and fatigue with U.S. dominance are powerful forces. Canadian businesses continue to seek access to Chinese markets, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has struggled to articulate a 'China policy' that satisfies both economic interests and human rights advocates.

The Pew survey indicates that Canadians are increasingly viewing China as a vital economic partner rather than as a security threat. This may complicate Canada's participation in U.S.-led efforts to limit China's access to critical technologies such as semiconductors. 'Trade and security are now on a collision course,' noted a professor of international relations at a major Canadian university. 'The public is telling us that China is too big to be ignored, and that has to influence how Ottawa measures its alliances.'

Mexico: The Economic Anchor

Mexico's case is even more pragmatic. With roughly 80% of its exports going to the United States, Mexico is deeply integrated into the U.S. economy. Yet trade data shows that China has become Mexico's largest import source in certain sectors, including electronics and auto parts. Chinese firms have established manufacturing plants in Mexico, taking advantage of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) to export to the U.S. market quietly. This triangular trade has made Mexico a de facto participant in Chinese supply chains, blurring the lines between regional and global commerce.

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who took office in 2018, has maintained a somewhat ambivalent stance toward Washington, frequently praising China's non-interventionist policies and accepting Chinese-made vaccines during peak pandemic shortages. The favorability gap found by Pew likely reflects this calculated neutrality. Mexicans, he argued through a spokesperson, are now looking toward multiple horizons rather than a single northern neighbor.

What Comes Next?

The durability of these views depends largely on the United States' behavior and China's own trajectory. If Washington can resolve lingering trade disputes and demonstrate a renewed commitment to its neighbors — for example, through clean energy partnerships, infrastructure investments, or immigration reform — some of the lost goodwill could be restored. Historically, U.S. favorability has been cyclical, rebounding after periods of friction. However, the speed at which China has overtaken the United States in these ratings suggests a structural change, not a temporary blip.

For China, the challenge is to maintain its favorable standing as its economy slows and Western scrutiny of its human rights abuses intensifies. Beijing has shown that its charm offensive in the Americas is not entirely benign; it has used economic ties to gain leverage and to spy on Chinese expatriates. Still, for now, the Pew data offer a rare win for Chinese diplomacy on a continent that has traditionally been America's backyard.

A New North American Reality

The Pew Research Center's findings are a wake-up call for U.S. policymakers. They underline the fact that alliances are not immune to neglect. As the survey demonstrates, the golden era of unquestioning pro-American sentiment in Canada and Mexico has ended, replaced by a more transactional, divided public opinion. Whether the United States can reverse this trend will be one of the most pressing questions of the next decade — and China, with its trade wars and diplomatic drills, is clearly ready to fill any vacuum.

This article is based on the latest survey from the Pew Research Center and reflects expert commentary from regional analysts. The future of North American relations is being rewritten, and these numbers may be the first line of the new chapter.